Angleter Election 2018: The Campaign
Angleter goes to the polls on June 19th.
Find updates, insights, and opinion around the election here as we enter the final days of the campaign.
OPINION: Emryc’s Inquistan Honour is a Non-Issue
Mary Pitt was an advisor to former SDP leader Kathryn March, and is now an author and writer. Her new book, Left Turn EU: Why Social Democracy Is The Future, is out on August 27th.
It’s certainly not politics as usual. With just 12 days to go before Angleter heads to the polls, Inquista’s own newly re-elected government throws an unexpected bombshell into the race by giving Citizen Alliance leader Emryc Isla the Order of Inquista, that country’s highest civil and secular honour.
Emryc responded triumphantly and thanked the Inquistan government for the honour, as you’d expect, but the rest of the political spectrum has been vicious in its criticism.
Soon to be Democrat ex-leader Sue Fareham said “the Angleteric people cannot and will not accept foreign interference in their elections.”
Sam Courtenay is not angry, just “disappointed,” although his Social Democrat attack dog, Kirpal Chanon, has repeatedly raised the idea of giving one of Craticus’ bêtes noires, Edward Firoux or Karinn Lallana, an Angleteric gong in retaliation.
The CSL released a 4000-word statement simultaneously attacking the idea of honours and complaining about the lack of diversity in the Order of Inquista.
But it seems unlikely that this de facto endorsement will do anything other than distract everyone from more important issues in the final weeks of the campaign.
All the non-Citizen Alliance parties have noticed that Angleterics generally aren’t moved by foreign endorsements in their elections. Few people are going to be swayed towards Emryc Isla by the fact that Paul Craticus likes him. The inevitable tweet from Dragan Trympov isn’t likely to move the needle very far in his favour either.
But Isla’s opponents should reconsider if they believe this outrage is going to turn voters against the Citizen Alliance.
True, Citizen Alliance voters are normally the first people to go ballistic at the possibility of foreign interference in Angleteric politics. If, say, Hillary Clinton had given Sam Courtenay an Australian honour, we’d never hear the end of it.
But Emryc Isla’s supporters have a blind spot when it comes to Emryc Isla.
They don’t care about that type of foreign interference. In fact, they’re quite happy about it.
This is partly because of how nationalist voters see the world. When a mainstream politician gets an endorsement from a foreign mainstream politician, it’s globalist elites ignoring national borders and looking after each other’s own narrow interests.
But when a ‘patriot’ in one country endorses a ‘patriot’ in another, it’s simply a case of brave fellow nationalists, fighting similar battles against the same Europe-wide elite, acknowledging each other and wishing them luck in their struggle.
In short, there’s something internationalist about the nationalists – Emryc Isla, Metodi Pravoslav, Paul Craticus, and so on are fiercely protective of their turf, but they all see themselves as local footsoldiers in the wider fight.
So don’t expect the Citizen Alliance to plummet in support when everyone else attacks them for this endorsement. And, if everyone else still thinks this is the way to attack the Citizen Alliance, then don’t expect them to plummet in support at all any time soon.
The last batch of polls have shown that around 33% each of the country support the SDP and the Citizen Alliance, while around 25% of people are still doggedly sticking to the Democrats.
(That leaves an assortment of Kilroys, Communists, social justice warriors, religious zealots, fascists, South Angleter separatists, and Islamists – a collection of oddballs who, worryingly, count for almost 1 in every 10 Angleterics.)
So right-wing populism is as powerful in Angleter as it’s ever been, and there’s a real chance that Emryc Isla could end up as Prime Minister on the morning of June 20th. The need for action in the mainstream parties is urgent.
But the way to take down the Citizen Alliance is not to dishonestly try to steal their clothing and start bleating about Emryc Isla’s regional bromances. It’s to make the case that his sort of demagoguery will make Angleter a poorer, and nastier, country.
WHY VOTE US: Social Democratic Party – Say Yes to Change
In the first of a new series where a representative from each significant party explains why they think they should have your vote on June 19th, Kirpal Chanon makes the case for the SDP. Mr Chanon is Minister for Economic Affairs, and SDP MP for Bengeworth.
I’m proud to be a Social Democrat, and I’m proud of the achievements that we’ve made over the last three years.
This minority government has been all about doing what we can to help keep Angleter prosperous, while making sure we all benefit from that prosperity as much as possible, in some difficult political circumstances.
Personally, as Minister for Economic Affairs, I’m proud of our strong and steady economic growth. It’s the best possible vindication after a 2015 campaign that was marred by hard-right doom-mongering.
Nobody can be under any doubt now that our balanced economic policy works in practice. All of Angleter is better off with a government that is unafraid to inject some fairness and stimulus into the economy.
With Sam Courtenay and the SDP, working-class Angleter has gotten the pay rise it deserves, with our Living Wage Accreditation scheme now counting over 50,000 employers, right across the country – including the government and all major government contractors.
We’ve invested over £40 billion in infrastructure, creating thousands of real, good, skilled jobs with a focus on building experience for young people. The fruits of their labour, from roads and high-speed rail links, to schools, hospitals, and houses, will drive our economy forward for decades to come.
By integrating social care into a better-funded health account system, we’ve guaranteed that everyone will get the care they need as they enter later life, and set up a sustainable, but compassionate healthcare system that can cope with our aging population.
And we’ve also given people more control over their own communities – today, for example, no company can frack in Angleteric ground without the consent of local people.
Being in government, and helping make this country a better place to live, has been a rewarding experience. I would never apologise for ending 18 years of continuous right-wing misrule of this country.
But being in a minority government has sometimes been frustrating. I know a lot of people, especially those who put their faith in us in 2015, have shared this frustration. And I know there’s a lot more that we can and must do to make Angleter the place we want it to be. A country that is more prosperous, and where that prosperity is shared more fairly.
We know a more equal society is a wealthier, happier, and more united society, and this is why Sam Courtenay, myself, and all the SDP are asking you to say Yes to Change on June 19th – yes to the change we’ve achieved, and yes to the change we will bring over the next three years as a majority government.
If we are given the responsibility of a majority government, we will not only defend the changes we’ve made against right-wing reactionaries, but we will get straight to work on the further changes this country needs.
It’s time we made all employers pay the Living Wage, for example. And we need to stop the payment of benefits to the wealthy, and give that money to the poorest and most vulnerable in our society.
It’s time we shifted the tax burden away from ordinary people’s hard-earned cash, and towards the unearned wealth of the super-rich – so let’s give ordinary people more money in their pockets by cutting sales tax, and recoup the money with a mansion tax.
It’s time the nobility stopped having such an outsized say in how our country is run.
It’s time we used our place in Europe to push on an international level for better rights for workers and consumers, not only because it’s the right thing to do, but also because it’ll stop Angleterics getting ripped off abroad.
And it’s time we took a smart approach to cutting crime. Our prisons shouldn’t be hellholes, they should be opportunities for inmates to learn, reflect, and turn away from crime.
I hope you’ll agree that our platform is ambitious, it’s serious, and it’s what Angleter needs from the next three years. And I hope, therefore, that on June 19th, you’ll say Yes to Sam Courtenay, Yes to the SDP, and Yes to Change.
WHY VOTE US: Democrats – This Is Angleter
Our series where a representative from each major party makes their case for your vote on June 19th continues with the Democrats, and Michael Gourieli. Mr Gourieli is Democrat MP for Saint-Evroult, and Shadow Minister for Immigration.
I don’t think anybody casting their vote back in June 2015 could have predicted the chaos that we’ve had to endure for the following three years.
A weak SDP government, horse-trading with the Citizen Alliance and trying to pander to Marxists at the same time? It’s not been fun in Parliament, and it’s probably been even less fun for you.
This isn’t Angleter.
The Angleter I know is a freedom-loving, stable, prosperous country where we believe in the power of the individual.
We don’t punish success with higher taxes. We don’t borrow billions of pounds every year to bring more people into the public sector. We don’t hold back the innovation that’ll fuel our future.
And we certainly don’t make prison a cushy life for criminals, or have the government dictate free contract between employer and employee, or let Kaasians skip the immigration queue, or slap a huge tax on the houses of our elderly people.
But it’s all well and good me pointing this out. It’s up to you to send Sam Courtenay and Emryc Isla the message on June 19th – THIS IS ANGLETER.
This is Angleter, and here we don’t stand for their left-wing, anti-freedom demagoguery.
We know it will hurt our economy, we know it will weaken our society, and we know it will damage our children’s futures.
We know that another way is possible.
And people ask me constantly, ‘what way is that?’ The simple answer is that it’s the Angleteric way.
It’s the way of lower taxes across the board, for all our citizens.
It’s the way of balanced budgets and fiscal responsibility.
It’s the way of eliminating pointless boondoggle schemes and saving us all some money.
It’s the way of getting government out of our business, as much as possible.
It’s the way of getting justice for victims, and giving criminals the punishment they deserve.
It’s the way of standing up for this country in Europe, instead of letting disasters like the Refugee Protection Act and legalised cannabis get forced on us.
This is a wonderful country, with immense potential. Our location, our bounteous natural resources, and above all the ingenuity and resourcefulness of our people.
It would be a tragedy if our potential were to be held back because we strayed from our core principles as a nation, and embraced either the hard-left or extreme-right rhetoric that the other options have to offer.
Ten years ago, I joined the Democrats because I believed that the old CLP had forgotten what made it, and Angleter, great.
Navdeep Khatkar had the courage to split with an old party machine, and offer a return to those original principles, the principles that I believe the silent majority of Angleteric people want to see. That’s why I, and so many others, made the jump.
And it’s why millions of voters joined with us, and gave us a landslide victory on that wonderful night in 2009.
Yes, our time in office was far from perfect, and we in the Democrats have had to do some soul-searching to ensure that we once again properly represent the soul of the Angleteric nation.
But if you ask me which of the parties best represents Angleteric ideals, and middle Angleter, in this election, then it is absolutely the Democrats.
And our leader, Sue Fareham, will be a Prime Minister for all Angleterics. Unlike Sam Courtenay and Emryc Isla, she knows what she’s doing, and she knows what the ingredients are for a successful country.
So on June 19th, it’s our chance to turn away from the left-wing experiment that has let this country down over the last three years. It’s our chance to reject the populism that has held our country back over the last three years.
It’s our chance to say THIS IS ANGLETER, and bring in a Democrat government that will restore what makes this country great.
WHY VOTE US: Citizen Alliance – #NoRefugees
The Citizen Alliance’s Martha Lane gives her take on why she believes her party deserves your vote on June 19th, continuing our regular series offering a platform to each of the major parties. Mrs Lane is the Citizen Alliance candidate in Catherine-de-Barnes.
Strictly speaking, the Citizen Alliance isn’t a political party. It’s exactly what the name suggests – an alliance of ordinary citizens, people like you coming together to take the reins of power from the elite, and give them back to the people.
None of us are career politicians, and none of us were in politics until we joined the Citizen Alliance. I was a teacher until I started focussing full-time on the people of Catherine-de-Barnes at Christmas. Likewise, our leader, Emryc Isla, used to be a web designer.
Our movement has grown phenomenally since Emryc and a group of like-minded people, brought together by the power of the Internet, founded it in 2013. It’s a testament to the gap between the ordinary people of this country and the elites who run it, and the appetite for real democracy.
And since 2015, we’ve had the responsibility of keeping the elites in check as far as we could, by holding the balance of power in Parliament. We’ve ensured the country got what it wanted when it voted out the arrogant Democrats; and we’ve curbed the left-wing, pro-mass immigration instincts of the SDP.
Our MPs have also been able to say what they think, meaning there are finally some free voices in Parliament, while SDP and Democrat MPs get their bland lines from unelected party bosses.
But this will be the biggest election in our history.
There’s a common thread running through the SDP and the Democrats. They both think that, fundamentally, there’s nothing wrong with the way Angleter is run. They both believe they’re entitled to rule over us. They both want to hoard power for themselves, and impose changes on our society without bothering to ask us.
Both of them are obsessed with Dromund Kaas and have proved incapable of taking us out of that pointless war. The Democrats came to power in 2009 as an anti-war party, and got voted out after we'd wasted four years and hundreds of Angleteric lives in DK. Now, three years on and with us no closer to leaving DK, it's time the Social Democrats got the same punishment.
Neither of them can stand up for this country in Europolis, even though we are one of the biggest countries in the EU, and one of the main contributors to the EU budget – it’s like we’re paying billions of pounds a year to let Montenbourg tell us what to do.
And they’re both fanatically pro-mass immigration. That’s why we failed to stop the Refugee Protection Act – because, when it comes down to it, none of our political elites, ‘centre-left’ or ‘centre-right’, actually care enough to stop it.
On June 19th, you can vote out the elite, and elect the people.
You can vote for #NoRefugees, and a government that WILL get the Refugee Protection Act repealed. Everybody knows that, if it weren’t for Emryc and the Citizen Alliance holding them in check, the SDP would’ve opened the floodgates for hundreds of thousands of Kaasian migrants, many of whom hate our country with a passion. The Democrats would’ve been no different.
You can vote for #DirectDemocracy, and a government that WILL introduce a Citizen Initiative scheme for referendums on the key issues that people like you care about, instead of letting career politicians tell you how to think. We’ll also devolve more powers to the provinces, bringing the corridors of power closer to you, and give you the power to elect judges and key officials.
You can vote for #CitizensFirst, and a government that WILL ensure that our welfare state, social housing, and public sector jobs go to Angleteric citizens. Of course, we welcome migrants who come to contribute to our country, but we don’t accept it the other way round.
You can vote for #NoMoreDKWar, and a government that WILL get Angleter out of the Kaasian quagmire by June 2019. Our soldiers are dying and it’s time someone stepped in on their behalf – we’d bring them home, and raise defence spending by 10% by 2021.
You can vote for #EnoughGreenLunacy, and a government that WILL put an end to pointless subsidies for unproductive renewable energy sources, lower fuel duty so motorists can finally get a break, and no more of the green taxes that have bled ordinary citizens dry. The environment is too important to be used as a cash cow for politicians and rich ‘green’ businessmen.
This is our platform. It’s not politically correct, but then, it’s not meant to be politically correct. It’s an agenda for a united, democratic Angleteric nation ruled by its citizens, and governed by common-sense principles.
I hope that, on June 19th, you can join with us, throw the elites out, make Emryc Isla the Prime Minister, and radically change Angleter for the better.
NEWS: Polls tight as Angleter awaits final debate night
The final weekend of campaigning before Tuesday’s election has drawn to a close, with the final tranche of polling showing that all remains to play for in tonight’s election debate.
The last two months have seen the Social Democrats struggle to recapture the commanding lead they had enjoyed as recently as February. On average, they have maintained a small lead of no more than five points over the Citizen Alliance, whose momentum has stalled since the thawing of relations with Montenbourg.
If anyone has made headway, it’s been the Democrats, who have threatened to turn this into a real three-horse race. The party has, apparently successfully, sought to put its internal differences behind it and launch a more broad, general appeal to the centre-right voters who they say represent the ‘soul’ of the country.
The most recent polls from the major polling companies have been thus:
CANVASSUS (14-16/6) :: SDP 32% :: CA 32% :: DEM 25% :: CSL 10% :: KIL <1% :: OTH <1%
PALMYRA RESEARCH (15-16/6) :: SDP 35% :: CA 31% :: DEM 24% :: CSL 8% :: KIL 1% :: OTH 1%
INTERREGO (13-14/6) :: SDP 32% :: CA 31% :: DEM 24% :: CSL 11% :: KIL 2% :: OTH <1%
VITALSIGNS (12-15/6) :: SDP 33% :: CA 30% :: DEM 26% :: CSL 8% :: KIL 2% :: OTH 1%
BARNES INSIGHTS (16/6) :: CA 34% :: SDP 33% :: DEM 22% :: CSL 10% :: KIL <1% :: OTH <1%
Though the polls are more or less in agreement with each other, they are showing a contest so close that they offer next to no insight into who will be occupying the Prime Minister’s Office come June 20th.
This has made the final leaders’ debate of the campaign, to be held this evening in Buissera, even more of a high-stakes affair. Two relatively tepid affairs on May 24th and June 2nd did little to move the needle, as the leaders took a cautious approach. This is expected to go out of the window this evening, as the parties seek to make a last-ditch appeal that will give them the necessary momentum going into Tuesday.
The expanding debate stage is also sure to liven up proceedings. The first debate featured just the SDP, Democrat, and Citizen Alliance leaders, while the Coalition for Socialism and Liberation’s new leader Salma Remington made an appearance in the second debate. This final event will feature those four leaders and Robert Kilroy-Silk, returning leader of the National Movement Robert Kilroy-Silk (Led By Robert Kilroy-Silk) after a surprisingly uneventful in the European Commission.
The two smaller parties have had trouble making headway in this election season. Kilroy-Silk’s return has failed to enthuse voters who have largely defected to the Citizen Alliance, with no poll in the last three weeks showing the National Movement on more than 2% of the vote. Kilroy-Silk has, however, remained upbeat, claiming he will build on his current seat haul of two, and will surely seek to use the debate as an opportunity to steal some much-needed limelight.
The Coalition for Socialism and Liberation, meanwhile, is set to make significant gains in the popular vote, compared to the 2% the old Communist Party scored in 2015, but insiders privately fear the loss of the party’s remaining seats. The transformation from Communist to CSL has seen a shift in emphasis away from classical Marxism towards a more intersectional approach, and a corresponding shift from a traditional working-class base to one more focussed in university towns.
Remington, who was elected ‘co-spokesperson’ to David Wannock-Smythe in April, and who has since emerged as the party’s most prominent figure, will be seeking to shore up the CSL’s disparate base, while tearing into the SDP for what they believe is its abandonment of progressive ideals while in power.
For the three larger parties, the onus has been on calm for the last two engagements, as the leaders – especially the populist Emryc Isla – have sought to look Prime Ministerial. But with Courtenay’s dream of a majority government slipping from his grasp, Sue Fareham looking to save her leadership with a strong performance that she can claim personal credit for, and Emryc Isla risking being outflanked on the populist side by Kilroy-Silk, a more contentious affair looks likely.
The final election debate will be available live on Sirion TV from 8pm.
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Interview with Prime Minister Hillary Clinton
Fran Kelly: Welcome back to RN Breakfast...I have the pleasure of having the Prime Minister with us in our Canberra office. Prime Minister, thank you for stopping by RN Breakfast.
Hillary Clinton: Pleasure.
FK: May I be the first at the ABC to welcome you back as returned Prime Minister with a larger parliamentary contingent. What has it been like shifting from coalition government to a more stable, effectively majority but still a minority government.
HC: Thank you. I know with the overhang seats and what not that we are a little better situated but still in a minority, but that minority government is a blessing. This is only the second election held in the MMP system and while I could have asked for another coalition government, it seemed much more plausible, given that we are 9 seats short of a majority.
FK: Any update to the agenda?
HC: We want to continue strengthening the equality of opportunity for Australians and that includes access to quality services like Medicare, the Australian university system, and strengthen our economy like we have been doing for the past two years, now we'll get six years of good government.
FK: That sounds lovely. Now that the election has been certified and Cabinet sworn in, you feeling better in the big chair in Parliament?
HC: Yes. I think we can finally give Australia the good, progressive agenda unfettered by obvious coalition demands that they have so thrillingly asked for.
FK: With the confidence and supply from Labor, it seems that the parliament will indeed be stable. Was there anything that Labor wanted in return?
HC: Oh, well Fran, I'm not going to discuss that right now. Whomever will lead the Australian Labor Party will be privy to that information. I won't divulge those details to the media unless something about the agreement that the entire parliamentary Labor Party decides to go against in the future.
FK: Now, Angleter is having a big general election and I was wondering if you've had any attention to that. They're our second largest partner when it comes to trade and defence and one of the leading voices in Europe.
HC: Yes, I have been paying attention. I know as Prime Minister I shouldn't have an opinion but as private citizen Hillary Clinton, I am looking forward to seeing what Sam Courtenay will be offering the people of Angleter in another term. I think he has done wonders for Angleter, he has been a great friend to Australia, and all of Angleter will continue to be looked at fondly by Australians. Of course, that being said, regardless of who manages to win the election, I look forward to meeting with them and working towards solutions that will better Europe and our two nations mutually.
FK: That's quite daring to go out on a limb and say that you privately are betting on a horse.
HC: Well, I always get accused of being too private or shady. Thought this time I ought to leave it out in the open. Well, Fran, I have to run. Gotta chair a Cabinet meeting in 45 minutes and there's lots of work to be done before the Speech for the Republic and the State Opening of Parliament.
FK: Thank you for stopping by, Prime Minister. Mrs. Hillary Clinton of the Progressive Alliance, given a second mandate to rule, this time going it solo.
HC: Oh thank you Fran!
((OOC: No, you're behind schedule))
NEWS: Angleter votes after bruising final debate leaves no obvious winners
Millions of Angleterics are finally going to the polls, at the end of a campaign which has left all the major parties’ fates hanging in the balance.
With the final round of polls showing the SDP and Citizen Alliance in a virtual dead heat, and the third-placed Democrats climbing in the polls behind them, campaigning has intensified significantly in recent days.
This more frantic tone was borne out by a final leaders’ debate on Sirion TV, which was characterised by interruptions and acrimonious – sometimes personal – arguments between the candidates. But while every candidate on stage sought to have their moment, most analysts agree that none of them did.
Emryc Isla, clearly having been told to be ‘more aggressive’, pulled no punches and took a particularly strong line on the Citizen Alliance’s key issues – Dromund Kaas and immigration. However, while he threw his base plenty of red meat, Isla’s abrasive approach may have compromised his ability to reach out to floating voters as a potential Prime Minister.
Salma Remington also launched some witty blows that will surely help her retain pre-eminence in a party that’s split between hardline progressives, more moderate progressives, and orthodox Marxists. However, her more forthright comments, including calling for Sam Courtenay to be imprisoned for war crimes and denouncing fallen DK War soldier Cpl. Nicholas Sabella as an ‘imperalist’, are unlikely to have broad appeal.
Remington has refused to back down from her comments, and has accused the other parties of ‘orchestrating an abuse campaign’ against her, which she alleges includes ‘thousands’ of death threats. ‘A feminist woman of Muslim descent can’t have opinions in this country,’ she tweeted.
Robert Kilroy-Silk characteristically focussed on promoting himself, to the extent that he was also criticised for failing to offer his condolences to Cpl. Sabella’s mother, who asked the debate question about the DK War. Beyond that, however, he failed to break through.
Sue Fareham, likewise, was a relatively quiet presence, but made the occasional punchy point and skilfully avoided scrutiny over her party’s internal divisions and lack of policy heft. Her performance is unlikely to have either helped or hurt her significantly.
But the main story of the night was Sam Courtenay, whose campaign came within a hair’s breadth of melting down as Emryc Isla and even Sue Fareham had him on the ropes over the DK War and the lack of progress on the investigations into the 9/9 terrorist attacks.
If that was Courtenay’s worst moment of the campaign, then, fortunately for him, his best moment came just seconds later, when he passionately defended himself against a shocking broadside from Salma Remington, who called the Prime Minister ‘Concentration Camp Courtenay’ and called for him to be prosecuted. Courtenay went on the attack in return, blasting Remington for ‘moralising’ and undermining the Left.
A Canvassus snap poll found that 40% of voters believed that Courtenay had won the debate, ahead of Isla on 33%, but at the same time, 42% believed Courtenay had lost the debate.
Since Sunday night, the war of words has gone from the debate stage to online, to the doorstep, and to a final tranche of ads. Riffing on Emryc Isla's words on Sunday night, the Citizen Alliance have launched a hard-hitting Three Billboards-style set of billboard ads across the country, reading '959 DEAD', 'AND STILL NO ANSWERS?', and 'HOW COME, SAM COURTENAY?' The SDP have run an online video ad consisting of outbursts and arguments from the other four candidates, overlaid with the words 'PRIME MINISTER?'
Polls will be open until 10pm tonight.
INSIGHT: The constituencies to watch tonight
As the results pour in tonight, some constituencies will matter more than others. Few people will be surprised if Sam Courtenay wins his seat of Bostra de Sham, for instance, where he’s defending a majority of 35,216, for example. Likewise, Maria Sakrakur’s 53,681 strong majority in Ashurbanipal is unlikely to vanish this time round.
But all the insiders’ eyes will be on some certain key seats, which could either decide the race, or give us a good indication of which way things are likely to go across the country. Here’s a selection of some of the most interesting races.
Yavur Central – Robert Kilroy-Silk (NMRKS) – Majority 1,023
Kilroy doesn’t currently have this working-class Orontes seat, since he gave it up for the European Commission. Noel Edmonds held it for the NMRKS in a by-election with a slightly increased majority. This time, Kilroy is back, but the question is whether he’s done enough to hold back the likely national swing towards last time’s runners-up, the Citizen Alliance.
Non Nobis – Ellen Areshula (Dem) – Majority 12,376
Neolombardia has a large number of Democrat/SDP marginals, with virtually no Citizen Alliance presence, and this seat will show how far, if at all, the Democrats have fallen in this unique part of the country. Loss here will be a real blow for Sue Fareham; while the SDP will be both looking to gain the seat and see their vote hold up against the Citizen Alliance and CSL.
Giles Valley – Adrian Carluck (Dem) – Majority 10,128
This Livan seat had a large residual Traditionalist Communion vote in 2015, and this seat will show whether the Democrats are right to hope that this vote will flood towards them and save key MPs like Adrian Carluck. The SDP will be hoping that either the Trad vote holds up or dissipates, and that they can eke out a win here – if they do, it would be a strong hint towards majority status for them.
Pathlow – Steve Milverton (SDP) – Majority 9,574
The SDP’s fight for majority status involves gaining Democrat seats like Non Nobis and Giles Valley, and holding heavily industrial seats like this one in Orontes against the Citizen Alliance. Victory here will be good news for the latter part of this two-pronged approach. Meanwhile, if the Citizen Alliance are even close to challenging for government, they should expect to win this seat.
Grandmesnil – Alice Gray (Dem) – Majority 20,113
The Democrats will be far more confident about this seat in eastern Maron than they were at the start of the campaign. Defeat to the SDP here, though, would signal total meltdown for the party, and even better news for the SDP’s pursuit of a majority – if Sam Courtenay’s party are picking up seats like Grandmesnil, then they can afford to lose a few Pathlows to the Citizen Alliance.
Bengeworth – Kirpal Chanon (SDP) – Majority 15,266
Kirpal Chanon is a high-profile MP for this rural Quareytene seat, but he’ll have to face off a strong challenge from the Citizen Alliance, who are currently polling third here. A win for the Citizen Alliance here would mean they can expect to be neck-and-neck with the SDP nationally. There’s also a strong Democrat vote here, and this seat will give some insight into whether they vote tactically – and which option they choose – in a seat where the SDP and Citizen Alliance are running close.
Mahin – Lawrence Beck (SDP) – Majority 3,892
The SDP gained this seat from the Communists in 2015, and now the CSL will be looking to take it back. However, the SDP are confident that the CSL’s shift from traditional Marxists to intersectional feminism will alienate the old Communist base and give them a much more comfortable majority. Watch to see where the CSL vote is going.
Edessa Central and University – Parkash Gill (SDP) – Majority 42,232
This, however, is much more fertile ground for today’s CSL, hence the decision of co-spokesperson David Wannock-Smythe to stand here. Parkash Gill is reported to be worried despite her seemingly insurmountable majority, while at the same time the CSL are playing down their chances. This seat will tell two stories – one of whether the CSL vote really has shifted to students and young voters, and the other of how strong the overall CSL vote is.
Manbidge – David Saraffian (Dem) – Majority 15,814
The Democrats’ only seat in their rock-solid Dayradestuna stronghold that could possibly be under threat (barring a freak result), and even losing here would be a real shock for the party. Who would challenge them is a further indicator – if it’s the SDP, who came second here last time, then Sam Courtenay may well be on course for the majority he craves. If it’s the Citizen Alliance, then Emryc Isla can expect to be taking over the Prime Minister’s Office.
La Croix Saint Leufroy – Fr George Guitmund (SDP) – Majority 2,505
The only priest in the Chamber of the Plebeians, who took this border seat in western Maron off the Democrats in 2015, is standing down this time. If the Democrats are going to defy the polls and make any advances in this election, and give Sue Fareham a chance at the Prime Minister’s Office, then this is exactly the sort of seat they’ll have to take back. The Citizen Alliance could also figure here, but should only do so if they’re leading the national popular vote.