INSIGHT: The constituencies to watch tonight As the results pour in tonight, some constituencies will matter more than others. Few people will be surprised if Sam Courtenay wins his seat of Bostra de Sham, for instance, where he’s defending a majority of 35,216, for example. Likewise, Maria Sakrakur’s 53,681 strong majority in Ashurbanipal is unlikely to vanish this time round. But all the insiders’ eyes will be on some certain key seats, which could either decide the race, or give us a good indication of which way things are likely to go across the country. Here’s a selection of some of the most interesting races. Yavur Central – Robert Kilroy-Silk (NMRKS) – Majority 1,023 Kilroy doesn’t currently have this working-class Orontes seat, since he gave it up for the European Commission. Noel Edmonds held it for the NMRKS in a by-election with a slightly increased majority. This time, Kilroy is back, but the question is whether he’s done enough to hold back the likely national swing towards last time’s runners-up, the Citizen Alliance. Non Nobis – Ellen Areshula (Dem) – Majority 12,376 Neolombardia has a large number of Democrat/SDP marginals, with virtually no Citizen Alliance presence, and this seat will show how far, if at all, the Democrats have fallen in this unique part of the country. Loss here will be a real blow for Sue Fareham; while the SDP will be both looking to gain the seat and see their vote hold up against the Citizen Alliance and CSL. Giles Valley – Adrian Carluck (Dem) – Majority 10,128 This Livan seat had a large residual Traditionalist Communion vote in 2015, and this seat will show whether the Democrats are right to hope that this vote will flood towards them and save key MPs like Adrian Carluck. The SDP will be hoping that either the Trad vote holds up or dissipates, and that they can eke out a win here – if they do, it would be a strong hint towards majority status for them. Pathlow – Steve Milverton (SDP) – Majority 9,574 The SDP’s fight for majority status involves gaining Democrat seats like Non Nobis and Giles Valley, and holding heavily industrial seats like this one in Orontes against the Citizen Alliance. Victory here will be good news for the latter part of this two-pronged approach. Meanwhile, if the Citizen Alliance are even close to challenging for government, they should expect to win this seat. Grandmesnil – Alice Gray (Dem) – Majority 20,113 The Democrats will be far more confident about this seat in eastern Maron than they were at the start of the campaign. Defeat to the SDP here, though, would signal total meltdown for the party, and even better news for the SDP’s pursuit of a majority – if Sam Courtenay’s party are picking up seats like Grandmesnil, then they can afford to lose a few Pathlows to the Citizen Alliance. Bengeworth – Kirpal Chanon (SDP) – Majority 15,266 Kirpal Chanon is a high-profile MP for this rural Quareytene seat, but he’ll have to face off a strong challenge from the Citizen Alliance, who are currently polling third here. A win for the Citizen Alliance here would mean they can expect to be neck-and-neck with the SDP nationally. There’s also a strong Democrat vote here, and this seat will give some insight into whether they vote tactically – and which option they choose – in a seat where the SDP and Citizen Alliance are running close. Mahin – Lawrence Beck (SDP) – Majority 3,892 The SDP gained this seat from the Communists in 2015, and now the CSL will be looking to take it back. However, the SDP are confident that the CSL’s shift from traditional Marxists to intersectional feminism will alienate the old Communist base and give them a much more comfortable majority. Watch to see where the CSL vote is going. Edessa Central and University – Parkash Gill (SDP) – Majority 42,232 This, however, is much more fertile ground for today’s CSL, hence the decision of co-spokesperson David Wannock-Smythe to stand here. Parkash Gill is reported to be worried despite her seemingly insurmountable majority, while at the same time the CSL are playing down their chances. This seat will tell two stories – one of whether the CSL vote really has shifted to students and young voters, and the other of how strong the overall CSL vote is. Manbidge – David Saraffian (Dem) – Majority 15,814 The Democrats’ only seat in their rock-solid Dayradestuna stronghold that could possibly be under threat (barring a freak result), and even losing here would be a real shock for the party. Who would challenge them is a further indicator – if it’s the SDP, who came second here last time, then Sam Courtenay may well be on course for the majority he craves. If it’s the Citizen Alliance, then Emryc Isla can expect to be taking over the Prime Minister’s Office. La Croix Saint Leufroy – Fr George Guitmund (SDP) – Majority 2,505 The only priest in the Chamber of the Plebeians, who took this border seat in western Maron off the Democrats in 2015, is standing down this time. If the Democrats are going to defy the polls and make any advances in this election, and give Sue Fareham a chance at the Prime Minister’s Office, then this is exactly the sort of seat they’ll have to take back. The Citizen Alliance could also figure here, but should only do so if they’re leading the national popular vote.