24J - Spanish General Election
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(The election special broadcast intro appears on TV. Then, the election theme starts to play in the background. Ana Blanco and Carlos Franganillo make their appearance)
AB: A very good night to all our audience tonight from Spain and the whole of the European Union. It's 19:55 in Spain, one hour less in the Canary Islands, and the Spanish people have just five minutes left to vote on this general election. I am Ana Blanco and here with me is Carlos Franganillo. Good evening, Carlos.
CF: Good evening Ana and also to our great audience watching us tonight. Today our country faces a crucial election, but before the hour to reveal the exit poll made by GAD3 for RTVE and FORTA, we need to explain how we got here: a month ago, Acting President Jesús Aguilar called for an emergency election after passing the new reform of the electoral law, that reduced the number of MPs down to 510, brings back the regional constituencies and will make debate on the Congreso and the Senado easier. According to the President, Ciudadanos was planning to support a no-confidence motion presented by the PSOE leader, Pedro Sánchez, that would have kicked him out of power. Both Sánchez and Rivera have accused Aguilar of lying, but the second resigned after the poor results in Andalucía and Castilla y León. That means Spain has not one but 2 women running to become President.
AB: And it's time to reveal our exit poll! Eight o'clock in Spain, seven o'clock in the Canary Islands and GAD3 is projecting that the Partido Popular has won this general election with an absolute majority, meaning that Jesús Aguilar has been elected President once again. Aguilar would have achieved a 9 seat majority, getting 270 out of 520 MPs in the Congreso de los Diputados.
CF: When it comes to the Senado, the Partido Popular would hold the majority on the chamber and increase it to 140 senators. Going back to the Congreso de los Diputados, Ciudadanos would get its worst result in history, getting a single seat on the chamber, that belongs to its leader, Inés Arrimadas. Sumar would manage to overtake Unidas Podemos, but however both together get less seats than Podemos used to have before. VOX MPs increase and the Partido Socialista's decrease. Stay tuned with us, the night has just started!
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(A heated discussion in Spanish about the exit poll takes place between several panelists)
CF: Hold on guys, I am very sorry to interrupt you but we have the first results from this general election, and these take us to the following provinces that our audience will now be able to see on their screens. Ana, tell us about them, please.
AB: Carlos, as you and our spectators can see right now, it is a massive victory of the Partido Popular in the five regions that have already reported their results, including the leftist Asturias, in which the Partido Popular hadn't won since its last majority, also with Jesús Aguilar leading the party, back in 2016. In Alicante Sumar, the new political platform of Yolanda Díaz manages to get a seat from Unidas Podemos, that would have just a seat in Parliament right now. In other news, there is a 4-way tie in Álava, with the Partido Popular getting the higher number of votes but the same number of seats than EHBildu or the Partido Nacionalista Vasco, that once again managed to secure their presence in the Congreso de los Diputados.
CF: Right now, how would our Parliament look Ana?
AB: With 33 out of 520 seats given, the Congreso de los Diputados, 16 seats would go to the Partido Popular, one short of a majority; 8 for the Partido Socialista Obrero Español; 4 for VOX; 1 for Sumar, Unidas Podemos, the Partido Nacionalista Vasco, EHBildu and Foro Asturias, an ally of the Partido Popular that would not block or oppose Aguilar's Presidency. That means the Partido Popular has an absolute majority right now, and that Jesús Aguilar would be once again elected as Prime Minister.
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(More heated discussions take place)
AB: And just when we were speaking about Barcelona and Cataluña, more results are in and we have the ones from said region. Carlos, how is it looking for Jesús Aguilar and his projected majority?
CF: It is looking promising for him, Ana. Right now, 82 seats already have an owner and with the current majority set at 41, the Partido Popular would have 32, if we count the one Foro Asturias would provide to him. Even if he is nine seats short of a majority, we expect that he takes up soon. But why has Aguilar lost the provisional majority? To answer that question we need to look at Barcelona, where no party has been able to secure a big number of seats without another following closely. For someone to win a majority, Barcelona is not needed at all, so Aguilar is on the right direction.
AB: And what about the pro-independence parties?
CF: It is a complete disaster for them, Ana. They have only managed to secure 11 seats on the region that provides the higher number of seats in Catalonia, compared to the 17 seats the constitucionalist parties have got. While Esquerra Republicana might be over 10 seats, Junts per Catalunya, which is Puigdemont's party, might get their worse result ever.
AB: Before we move on again to commenting on the results, we are connecting with the headquarters of the Partido Popular in Madrid, where Julia Montes is tonight. Good evening Julia, how is the atmosphere there?
JM: Good evening Ana and Carlos, here in Génova 13 the atmosphere is full of excitement and joy. Lots of people have already arrived or are arriving at this street in the city centre of Madrid with Spanish and PP flags to celebrate their more than likely victory in this general election. Jesús Aguilar is expected to appear on that balcony as soon as the results reveal are over to celebrate his new absolute majority.
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(A short discussion takes place)
CF: A very interesting debate that we are having, but we have more results inbound and I believe Ana is ready to explain them. Go ahead, Ana.
AB: Indeed Carlos, more results have just been announced and the Partido Popular wins in every single region whose results have been announced on this round. Some attention should be given to Cádiz, home for the Spanish liberalism, where the Partido Popular has got 5 out of 9 seats. Aguilar also wins Castellón and Ciudad Real with absolute majorities, gets half of Córdoba's seats and manages to retain one of the PP bastions, Ceuta.
CF: Anyone has an analysis about Cádiz?
Carmen Morodo: Well, Cádiz was typically a liberal, leftist region; but today we are seeing how the Partido Popular has managed to do two things with this election call: one, they have completed the destruction of Ciudadanos, that once again is unable to attract voters in one of the most liberal regions of the country and two, according to that GAD3 poll that you have revealed when the polls closed, he has achieved a majority that will once again allow him to act as he wants and drive reforms that were not that acceptable for Ciudadanos. Jesús has definitely won in the startegy game, while Ciudadanos has been backstabbed to death and then, destroyed by themselves.
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AB: Before we connect with the headquarters of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), Carlos has some new results that have been announced a few minutes ago. Carlos, what about them?
CF: Unsurprising results once again, Ana, with the Partido Popular winning every single region except one, and that is Girona, where the pro-independence party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya has won the highest number of seats and also when it comes to votes. The Partido Regionalista de Cantabria has once again managed to secure their seat, and Sumar has frustrated the PSOE's attempt to get a 2nd MP for Girona. In this update, VOX only gets a single seat.
AB: And how does the Congreso de los Diputados look like right now?
CF: At the moment, 134 out of 520 seats have already been given, and this is how everything looks like right now: The Partido Popular keeps the lead with 60 seats, 7 short of a majority; in second we have the PSOE with 31, third place goes to VOX, that right now has 15 seats, and then we have Esquerra with 9, Sumar with 5, Unidas Podemos and Junts with 4 each, and CUP, Ciudadanos, PNV, EHBildu, Foro Asturias and the PRC with 1 each.
AB: Thank you Carlos. And now, we are heading to Ferraz Street in Madrid, where Carlos de las Heras is right now, inside of the PSOE's headquarters. Carlos, how are they feeling?
CdlH: Well Ana, as you can imagine, the feelings are not positive. Many here, including the Secretary General and candidate of the party, Pedro Sánchez, expected to be able to defeat the Partido Popular and reach the Spanish Presidency; but after the exit poll came out those hopes and expectations just turned into a dream once again, that as the count advances, seem like an unreachable one.
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(Panelists discuss about the left and how they did not take the chance to beat the PP)
CF: It is 21:45, one hour less in the Canary Islands and we have Ana ready to tell us about some results that have just come out.
AB: Indeed Carlos, we have the results from five more regions, and the Partido Popular wins in 3 of them out of the 4 they were running in. Navarra, where the Partido Popular has a coalition agreement with the Unión del Pueblo Navarro, has been won by said alliance, while Guipúzcoa has been won by the Partido Nacionalista Vasco, however there's a three-way tie when it comes to the number of seats given to each party in that region of the Basque Country. Going back to Navarra, EHBildu has managed to secure a seat after a heavy fight with Unidas Podemos. 165 seats have already been assigned, the majority stands at 84 right now and the Partido Popular have 72, plus 3 from Navarra Suma and 1 from Foro Asturias that takes them to 76, 6 short of a majority.
CF: Thank you, Ana. And now we have a special guest with us, live from Europolis, James Mizrachi-Roscoe, Councillor of the United Duchies in the European Council, good evening!
JMR: Good evening, I've heard the weather is good in Spain.
CF: We are going through a heatwave now, so it is excellent indeed. My first question is about how you think this election will end up: will it be an Aguilar majority as polls project or are you one of the few that still believe that an alternative government is possible?
JMR: I suspect it will be an Aguilar majority looking at all the results coming in so far from experience when parties lose their strongholds like the PSOE has it can be a big uphill battle for many years as you have to build up an activist base again in the local area and capacity to deliver leaflets. We saw this happen in the Duchies with PSD where it took a while for them to rise back up after the innitial decline. I suspect the same will happen in Spain.
CF: One of the things we are appreciating while looking at social media abroad is that many people are commenting on a Spanish "turn to the right", opposing to the rest of the European Union that seems to be turning to the left. Do you think that VOX's alleged populism has something to see with this?
JMR: I think it does, and a lot of it is due to people feeling ignored by an elite and the truth is the elite of Europe have abandoned the working class. When people feel ignored and mocked they turn to the only people who seemingly are fighting for them even if those people really aren't. Now I 'm not saying its a good thing and we need to indulge the worst tendencies of the nasty far-right, as a Jewish person ethnically I know where that can lead, but we must listen to concerns of those who feel let down by radical capitalism as exists today and betrayed by corporate elites by adressing their concerns in a positive, non-nationalist and pro-working class way, but even then we need to make sure we don't go too far the other way. We must basically hold to account the worst abusers of power in the political and corporate world and adress issues such as cost of living , the lowering pay affect of immigration on minimum wage or just above minimum wage jobs and trade jobs. I think this is what is feeding into the VOX victories which are a danger for Europe much in the way New Dawn and further right elements of Unus were big dangers.
CF: So, for example, if you were a member of the Partido Popular, you would advocate and call for an immediate reform of the Castille and León Government, where both parties compose the Government, right?
JMR: I would call for compromise , where there are issues both parties working together is generally better. I think the way Citizens turned on the PP rather than working through diferences is not good politics and I think the Spanish see this, the politics of divisiveness is losing in this situation.
CF: Before you leave, I do not want to lose the chance to speak with you about Ciudadanos' debacle. The United Duchies is known for being one of the most moderate, centrist countries of the EU. Do you think that the massive fall of Ciudadanos sends a message to the rest of the Union? Is this the end of centrist parties?
JMR: I don't think it does since it can work really well for example the Alternative won in Strathae by being in the middle of the PoT and the CSP and in Duchies Moderates have governed as the leading party or a supporting party since 1985 because they can work with all parties and have a proven track record in moderating the extremes be it the nationalist right , centre right or the lefts extremes. They can also remain popular because people from both the left and the right can often lend their votes to voice disapproval at the more extreme elements of their parties but the key here is it works in Duchies because our centrist party has worked and proven to be willing to work with all and compromise. If Ciudadanos and other parties abroad want to succeed this is the model to use , do this and Ciudadanos could thrive again and any centrist party can thrive this way.
CF: James Mizrachi-Roscoe, Councillor for the United Duchies in the European Council, thank you very much for the interview.
JMR: Thank you and I hope you can enjoy your summer weather and support those finding it difficult in your heatwave right now , they are very much in the Duchians minds.
CF: Thank you very much for your kind message, good night!
JMR: Good night!
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(Panelists discuss about the interview with James Mizrachi-Roscoe and some international affairs that the new Government will have to deal with)
AB: We are having a lively discussion and I appreciate that, but before we resume it we move on to Carlos that has some more results to show us.
CF: Indeed Ana, and the new regions that have proclaimed their results are all coloured in the Partido Popular's blue! Jesús Aguilar manages to get a victory on every single region of this update, increasing his party MPs number to 90, plus four from the parties he has an agreement with, he has 94 seats, 3 short of a majority. 195/520 seats given, and we have some new parties in Parliament, such as Nueva Canarias that manages to keep its seat as the Bloque Nacionalista Galego does. Unidas Podemos has also managed to secure a seat in Las Palmas.
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(A special alarm sounds, everyone goes silent and Carlos appears on TV)
CF: Well ladies and gentlemen, it is time! The results from the autonomous community of Madrid are in, and we have Ana Blanco outside of this studio of Prado del Rey to tell us about these and other regions' results. Ana, all yours!
(A drone shot shows Ana standing in front of the studio building, that is lighted up in blue)
AB: Carlos, Madrid is once again a blue territory, and has voted massively for Jesús Aguilar, giving him 16 seats. The PSOE has got 8, VOX 6, followed closely by Sumar and last, but not least, Unidas Podemos with 2. Ciudadanos has lost the only chance they had to win some extra seats, and are projected to stay with a single one. Meanwhile, they have conceeded another victory in Lleida, where Esquerra wins and overall, so do pro-independence parties. Melilla and Málaga, strongholds of the PP and the last one being the region of origin of Jesús Aguilar, have given him absolute majorities.
CF: Thank you Ana. Chema, what are your thoughts right now?
Chema Crespo: It is a massive victory for the Partido Popular, well, mostly for Jesús Aguilar; and a massive defeat for any alternative to the left of our President. Sumar is not meeting my expectations, the Partido Socialista is trying to close the gap with no success and Unidas Podemos is definitely a thing of the past after the departure of Yolanda Díaz. The left has a huge reflection in front, and I hope it is deep, becase this country definitely needs left-wing parties.
CF: About that and other topics we will talk to James Moriarty, President of the United Peoples Front Alliance in Leagio, in a few minutes.
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(The panelists discuss about the results in Madrid and Málaga, that clearly set the way towards victory for Aguilar)
AB: We have more results pending to announce, and it is Carlos' turn to tell us about them. Go ahead with them!
CF: Ana, the results proclamation speed seems to have increased, and we have another round of them to reveal. As it has been usual during this election so far, the Partido Popular has won every region of this new round. We need to highlight Santa Cruz de Tenerife, where Coalición Canaria and her referential MP Ana Oramas have secured their seat for another term, and Pontevedra, where Sumar has got the only Galician seat awarded to a party more leftist than the Partido Socialista.
AB: I think it is time to make a little review of how Parliament looks like, isn't it?
CF: Indeed Ana! At the moment, 280 seats out of 520 have been awarded to the different political parties running on this election, and right now our projected winner's party, the PP, has secured 134, or 138 if you want to add up the seat that belongs to Foro Asturias and the 3 secured by Navarra Suma. Majority stands at 140 seats right now, what means that Aguilar falls 6 short of a majority. The Partido Socialista stands on second place, with 65 seats, and we project that Pedro Sánchez will become the leader of the opposition.
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CF: And it seems we have some more results to show, and the director of this special broadcast is telling me that we are revealing the results of 11 regions. Ana, is this true?
AB: It is Carlos, 11 regions have proclaimed their results at the same time and here they are, incluiding several surprises, such as the defeat by a handful of votes of the Partido Popular in Sevilla, the disappearance of the Partido Socialista in Soria and Teruel, where two regionalist parties (Teruel Existe and Soria Ya) win that seat or the massive victory of the Partido Popular in Valencia that reminds many of the times of Rita Barberá and Francisco Camps, before the corruption scandals appeared on scene.
CF: Very surprising indeed, but now we have a new guest to interview. James Moriarty, President of the United Peoples Front Alliance in Leagio, good evening!
JM: Good evening to you too. And thank you for inviting me here today.
CF: First of all, I have to ask you the same question that I have asked to our previous guest, Cllr. Mizrachi-Roscoe: are there any chances left for the Spanish left to govern this country?
JM: As President of a Left-Wing Political Alliance in my country, I want to believe so for the hope of a united Spainish left. However, the many left-wing parties in Spain will have to come to their senses on the divisions that they have with each other. In Leagio, they said it was impossible for a Left-Wing party to do well and my Alliance proved them wrong recently in the Leagioan Senate By-Elections last week. So yes I do think it can be possible that a united Spanish left can be formed, but they would have to get rid of any dislike towards each other. Maybe the PSOE and Unidas Podemos should accept the idea of forming a political alliance in the next coming election. If they do that then they might have time to buy in rebuilding their image that they lost in this general election and even find a candidate that is just as popular as well as charismatic to compete against Aguilar and the Partido Popular. Worst case scenario, they would probably have to work with the left wing regionalists in order to form a capable collision that represents a united left. This is the model that the United People's front used to form the alliance and so far the polls in Leagio for the coming election is showing that it might succeed in having a sizable influence within Leagio's House of Counselors at least.
CF: VOX influence and popularity is also a hot topic in Leagioan social media at the moment: do you think this far-right party will be able to condition Aguilar's government action during the next year knowing that Spain will go back to the polls for autonomical and municipal elections in 2023? Are they a threat to the EU's stability?
JM: If President Aguilar is not careful after this election, I suspect that he might be forced into a situation in 2023 in where Vox might actually be a threat to his government and depending on how the year goes could result in said far-right party getting a lead in the autonomical and municipal elections. I suspect that the president would have to make some sort of action against Vox, if he wants to ensure that he can have his party obtain strong influence in those elections up.
In terms of the threat of Vox to EU stability, I would say that my answer is yes.Because they oppose the idea of many nations and cultures transiting to all the nations of the EU and I want to believe that should they hold any influence in Spainish politics at a serious level, then they could force actions that will challenge the powers of the European Union. Thankfully, the Leagioan counterpart at the moment, the National Patriot Party does not hold much sway with Leagioan voters at the moment.
CF: Another thing that have gotten our attention here in Spain is the fall of Ciudadanos, the centrist party that allegedly tried to 'backstab' the Partido Popular after the passage of the Electoral Law reform. Do you think this party was necessary or have they got what they deserved for trying to betray the PP?
JM: Considering the circumstances, I would say that the people of Barcelona were being too kind to Ciudadanos to give them one seat. As the idea of trying to stab your coalition partner in the back normally doesn't in well after an election in my country, even under the old first past the post primary system. The old dagger in the back routine in parliamentarian democracy doesn't really resonate well to me. I would say that President Aguilar in calling for a election this early in the term of the previous Cortes Generales session. Had this been in Leagio's old system, Ciudadanos probably would not even recieve even one seat of representation from the people.
CF: Last, but not least, if Aguilar wins the election as projected, how will the diplomatic relationship with Leagio develop in the coming weeks or months? Will it be the same or will it improve even more?
JM: It is not a hidden fact in Leagio that President Mouri-Kudo is a strong and faithful friend as well as ally to President Aguilar, if he wins as is projected I suspect that in the coming months the Spanish and Leagioan relations will continue to prosper. Even to the point to where I hear there is talks within the National Congress from both Mouri-Kudo's party and my alliance in developing stronger trade relations with Spain. Even if Mouri-Kudo's party lose the election in plurality this December, Spainish and Leagioan relation will still be linked in a strong approach for stability. We might see more military coordination in exercises and even a defense pact of somesort being drafted. Even though, my Alliance disagrees with Aguilar's policies, his government would be still respected in a full United Peoples Front government should one come in December.
CF: James Moriarty, President of the United Peoples Front Alliance in Leagio, thank you very much for giving us this interview, it has been a pleasure. Good night!
JM: Good night.
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(Panelists now have a short discussion about regionalist parties and their growing influence in the 'empty Spain' areas)
AB: I am sorry to interrupt you but we have a massive update, it seems that the results have picked up the fast pace and 15 regions have proclaimed their results in a matter of 5 minutes. Luckily, thanks to the amazing team we have in Radiotelevisión Española, we are able to offer you those results fast and clearly. Carlos, go ahead!
(Some surprise noises can be heard, incluiding one of the panelists asking 'how's that possible?', referencing the Ciudadanos seat in Isla de Francia)
CF: How is that possible indeed, Carmen, that is what the candidate of Ciudadanos might be asking to her team right now. Amazingly, in what it seems to be a miracle, Ciudadanos keeps a seat in the very liberal region of Isla de Francia. But there is more to analyze from these results: the SNP wins every single Scottish region except two; and nacionalist parties in Gales and Puerto Rico secure a MP in the Congreso de los Diputados. And if that is not enough for you, the Partido Popular secure huge wins in Nueva York and Irlanda.
AB: How does Parliament look right now, Carlos? There might have been huge changes to each party's seat amount...
CF: 448 out of 520 seats already have an owner, and with the majority being set at 225 right now, Jesús Aguilar has 222 seats, three short of a majority. Yet, if you add up the parties that have already compromised their vote... Jesús Aguilar has a majority and therefore becomes the President of Spain. 102 seats left to assign, and it seems the PP is struggling to close the gap... While they need to rely on their allies? Stay tuned!
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(The discussion between panelists is longer than expected, as the recount seemed to have picked a fast pace. Suddenly, the RTVE Election theme starts playing, and the camera shows Ana and Carlos standing together)
CF: Ladies and gentlemen, we have some Breaking news. The rest of the regions have just proclaimed their results, and we are now able to tell you who the winner is. But first, let's go through the last round of regional results.
AB: The Partido Popular has won in mostly every single region except two of them: in Portugalia Centro, where the Partido Socialista has won by just a handful of votes and in El Rif, where the nationalist, pro-independence party Futuro para el Rif has won. In the newly created Ultramar constituency, the Partido Popular blasts the PSOE on a 3-1 seat distribution. And that take us to the final results...
CF: Ladies and gentlemen, the Kingdom of Spain has a new President, which happens to be the one we have had for six years. Jesús Aguilar and the Partido Popular win the Spanish General Election with 264 seats, with a majority of 3 seats! In second we have the Partido Socialista Obrero Español, with 121 seats; VOX on 3rd with 40; Sumar and the SNP on 4th and 5th with 18 seats each; Esquerra Republicana with 13; Unidas Podemos with 12; the Partido Nacionalista Vasco and Junts per Catalunya with 6 each; EHBildu with 5; Navarra Suma with 3, Ciudadanos with 2...
AB: And with one seat each, Coalición Canaria, Nueva Canarias, the Bloque Nacionalista Galego, the Candidatura d'Unitat Popular, Foro Asturias, the Partido Regionalista de Cantabria, Teruel Existe, Soria Ya!, Por Puerto Rico, Plaid Cymru, Futuro para el Rif y Huriyah Unida.
And now, we move to the Senado de España results...
AB: The Senado de España results have also been announced and, just like in the Congreso de los Diputados, the Partido Popular gets a majority with 140 seats. Then we find the Partido Socialista Obrero Español with 80; VOX with 7; the SNP with 6; Navarra Suma with 5; Esquerra Republicana with 4; the Partido Nacionalista Vasco, Sumar and the Partido Regionalista de Cantabria with 3, Junts per Catalunya with 2...
CF: Unidas Podemos, Ciudadanos and EHBildu with 2 seats each; and finally with a single seat on the chamber we have Coalición Canaria, Geroa Bai, the Bloque Nacionalista Galego, Huriyah Unida, Más Madrid and the Partido Aragonés.
AB: And this has been our special coverage of the Spanish General Election. Thank you very much for following this very important day with us...
CF: And good night from Spain!
The Kingdom of Spain