Duxburian News Media
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Nemeiro Early Debate Poll
If the elections were held today, who would you vote for?
Premier Commissioner
Harish Desai - 28%
Jean-Claude Juncker - 26%
Sofie Čikarová - 25%
Ville Niniistö 2%
Kittichat Thongthang - 3%Unsure - 16%
Internal Affairs Commissioner
Sir Joseph William Amberton Biden Sr - 9%
Sebastian Piñera Echenique - 1%
Ilmaras Kalessed - 10%
Dr. Margaret Schaumburg Ferdinand Thatcher - 3%
Paul-Gabrielle Muzhare 2 - %
Sanna Marin - 2%
Kittichat Thongthang - 1%Unsure - 71%
Projected Turnout Adjustments:
Dominion of Linden - 30-35%
Solarity of Azrekko - 80-90%Analyst Notes: Confidence is increasing for a massive or record voter turnout in the City of Azrekko - the low end has been revised up some 20 percentage points. The combination of multiple EU candidate rallies, Solaris Azrekko EU aid drama, and new developments in an already captivating special election race is sending voter enthusiasm skyrocketing. Turnout in the Dominion of Linden is also expected to see a moderate bounce after Jean-Claude Juncker visited the capital.
Premier Notes:
Harish Desai lost ground as voters increasingly view his treaty-based ideas as infeasible. However, he remains the narrow frontrunner in the Premier race, effectively invoking fear of future EPA legislation - EUROPOL and FRONTEX concepts are unpopular in the Duxburian Union, while a Digital Services Act is of concern in tech cities like Niko, Verinteno, and Hasilthec. What could be in digital services legislation is deeply feared in Azrekko, particularly by Alan Davey supporters.Jean-Claude Juncker gained ground off a successful rally in Dairghazburo, but without enough impact to overtake Desai. The lion's share of Duxburian votes this cycle lie in a different city, a city full of fear and riding a tidal wave of mixed emotions as its special election date draws closer.
Sofie Čikarová was able to connect with Azrekkian voters better than the other Premier candidates in her rally, propelling her to a close 3rd. Her ability to get Azrekkians to consider the merits of increasing the European budget is unprecented in the Duxburian Union. She has potential to rise to frontrunner position with this type of message.
The other candidates are almost completely unknown to Duxburian voters.
With just 3 precentage points separating 1st from 3rd and 16% of voters remaining undecided, this race could still go any direction as the debate continues.
Internal Notes:
Support for all candidates plummeted as the sheer amount of candidates generates considerable confusion and indecisiveness in the Duxburian electorate. 71% of polled voters are now undecided, an increase of 17% and the highest level of indecision ever recorded in a Nemeiro poll for any election.
Joseph Biden remains in 2nd and just shy of 1st with his pledge to review existing legislation for sovereignty-related issues. Biden has a solid base of support, but a thin platform on specifics beyond the reviews.
Sebastian Piñera Echenique's support collapsed after his stances about Commission inflexibility and continued interference in national affairs. These stances are deeply unpopular in every major Duxburian city, especially Azrekko.
Ilmaras Kalessed clings to 1st by a single point. She is widely viewed by Duxburians as the most "real" candidate in the race, connecting strongly with many people on a variety of issues. She has high upside potential, but is hampered by long and complex messages. Many Duxburians are skeptical about feasibility, keeping her polling close to Biden.
All other candidates are almost completely unknown to Duxburian voters. Kittichat Thongthang is viewed as a meme candidate, leading to a near-total collapse of support in cities like Azrekko, where the internal race is dead serious.
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The Early Bird
What's News Today?
This morning's quick rundown of top new stories:
1 - Wesley Greene Returns to European Council
After being called home due to serious safety concerns about the Council chamber, Councillor Greene is back to represent the Duxburian Union.2 - Major Crypto Exchanges Coinbase and Binance Consider Moving Headquarters from Verinteno to Azrekko
Both Coinbase and Binance have filed regulatory paperwork related to the possibility of changing their primary headquarters as hype about the upcoming Azrekko special election ripples through the crypto world.
3 - Azrekkian Real Estate Market Surges to Unexpected High
Crypto companies are snatching up commercial and warehouse inventory in the City of Azrekko as speculation on the outcome of the election runs rampant. Prices for commercial real estate rose sharply for the first time in over 8 years. Residential values are also on the rise as population flow reverses into the city. The city has consistently lost population since Y915, but is projected to gain in Y921.
4 - Solaris Azrekko Solar Project Moves Forward
The City Council of Azrekko has agreed to sign the terms of the loan with the Green European Fund, leaving only a Maelir's signature left to go before work can get started. Phase one of the project is fully funded and preliminary orders for solar panels are expected to start going out after final layout adjustments.
5 - Laatzenian Coral Reef Threatened
Grand Suez, the last Duxburian coral reef left on the Suez coast and northernmost reef in the country, experienced a 15% die-off in the past 30 days as record warm water temperatures killed off symbiotic algae that the corals depend on. The entire reef is also imperiled by pollution flowing from the Port of Laatzen. A leading scientific journal estimates the Grand Suez will completely disappear within the next 25 years.
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Nemeiro Opinion Poll for European Council Speaker Election
Duxburians were randomly sampled to determine national sentiment on the Speaker election.
Should requests for debate extensions automatically be granted?
Yes - 35%
No - 65%Should the Speaker provide summaries for pending legislation?
Yes - 82%
No - 18%Should the European Council operate in sessions?
Yes - 49%
No - 51%Should the European Council take breaks for major holidays?
Yes - 50%
No - 50%Should the Speaker enforce stronger civility in debate?
Yes - 21%
No - 79%What quality(ies) do you find most important in a Speaker of the European Council?
Impartiality - 97%
Activity - 91%
Leadership - 88%
Experience in the Council - 86%
Conflict Resolution - 84%
Rules Enforcement - 77%
Approachability - 73%
Experience outside the Council - 24%Rank the candidates by Impartiality
Iras TILKANAS
James MIZRACHI-ROSCOE
Yuridiana YAHONTOV
Donald TUSKRank the candidates by Activity
Donald TUSK
Iras TILKANAS
Yuridiana YAHONTOV
James MIZRACHI-ROSCOERank the candidates by Leadership
Donald TUSK
Iras TILKANAS
Yuridiana YAHONTOV
James MIZRACHI-ROSCOERank the candidates overall / Who would you vote for to become Speaker?
Iras TILKANAS
Yuridiana YAHONTOV
Donald TUSK
James MIZRACHI-ROSCOEResults Analysis -
Respondents largely panned automatic debate extensions, citing potential for debate "to go on indefinitely in situations when no one wanted to debate in the first place".
Respondents responded strongly in favor of the Speaker providing legislation summaries, although most note that such summaries should be "at the discretion of the Speaker" "when reasonable" and "not a requirement for every act".Whether the Council should operate in sessions and whether it should break for holidays ended up dividing the respondents almost evenly. Respondents in favor mostly expressed the potential for sessions and holidays to "help with Councillor inactivity". Respondents opposed mostly expressed concern that the sessions/holidays would be "for dates and events that we do not widely observe", "observe on different days than most of the EU", or "do not observe at all", "on a calendar we do not use", while "our traditions will be totally ignored". While "Cultural Respect" was not a polling item, it's clearly another important driver of voter sentiment, given the country's tense history with the European Union on cultural differences.
Respondents strongly oppose Speaker enforcement of greater civility. The most cited reason was Article II, Section I, Clause III of the European Constitution - "All views can be voiced in the European Council." Respondents in opposition further cited "professional courtesy", "peoples' feelings", and even "the Code of Conduct" being "overruled" by the Constitution. "All views" is an exceptionally strong level of free speech protection and 79% of respondents hold it to the letter.
The sampled respondents overall back Iras Tilkanas as first preference for Speaker, although with close margins. Respondents view Tilkanas as most likely to "respect the EU Constitution" in regards to the "All views" clause. They widely support legislative summaries and only ding her for shorter length of experience in the Council.
Respondents view Donald Tusk's experience and leadership above the other candidates, but hammer him for "a glaring lack of impartiality", the number 1 most important Duxburian preference for qualities a Speaker must have. Respondents also ding Tusk for his zero tolerance policy for various Council conduct, calling it "blatantly unconstitutional", and "a grave threat to free speech" in the Council. Tusk otherwise has the profile of a first preference pick, so these two major issues could have cost him 2 slots.
The other candidates failed to gain traction. Respondents worry about Yahontov's impartiality and how sessions / holidays would be handled. Respondents worry about Mizrachi-Roscoe's activity, experience, compliance with the Constitution, and how the sessions / holidays would be handled.
It is worth noting that the Union of Duxburian Dominions does not hold a direct election to determine its Speaker vote - that power resides within the Domain of the European Councillor. However, Nemeiro considers it highly unlikely that Councillor Greene's vote would depart from the sentiment found in this poll. He has yet to stake out any minority sentiment positions and his voting history is correlated exactly with national majority opinions. This is unlikely to change at this stage of his career, so we project first preference for Iras Tilkanas.
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The Daily Dominion
All the News You Need to HearBREAKING: Mass Protests Erupt Over European Enterprise Penalties Act, DUSE Tanks 1,805 Points in Record Loss
Chaos enveloped Duxburian streets and financial markets as spontaneous protests broke out nationwide and the Duxburian Union Stock Exchange dropped 1,805 basis points in frenzied panic selling, the worst daily loss in Duxburian history. Comments by James Mizrachi-Roscoe, the United Duchies Councillor who proposed the European Enterprise Penalties Act, involving a stackable 10% revenue penalty for each violation, bankruptcy of existing corporations, and mass replacing of existing corporations, sent shockwaves of terror through the economy. Later amendments to soften the extreme provisions of the act did little to assuage sentiment, especially among massive crowds of blue collar workers in Duxburian major cities.
Radio silence from the Domain of the Steward fed to the panic, as investors felt abandoned and stormed for the exits. The crypto market surged to all time highs as investors sought safe havens from European Union control. Bitcoin surged to break K:70,000 for the first time and all major alts posted double digit gains. Precious metals also ended the day sharply up.
Azrekko's Atomic Triangle filled to capacity in a matter of hours, however, protests there remained peaceful. "With unemployment hovering over 60% and years of severe recession, the city has become so numb to yet more bad news from Europolis that nobody can even summon the emotional effort required for violence," explained a member of the Police Alliance, who wished to remain anonymous. "The prospect of massive economic collapse is meaningless in a place that has already sustained massive economic collapse, so I actually expect this crowd to disperse on its own, once more people realize this."
Azrekko's remaining Maelir candidates in the special election offerred their views for action - Anita Lenn pledged to hold a city-wide referendum on European Union membership if elected, while Alan Davey pledged to just leave the European Union without the need for a referendum. Both moves would mostly be symbolic, as an individual Duxburian city cannot just decide to leave the EU on its own volition. Over 90% of the city's electorate supported leaving in past Nemiero polls.
All of our analysts at the Daily Dominion expect the act to fail and markets to recover as fast as they fell, although investors are taking no chances.
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The Daily Dominion
All the News You Need to HearBREAKING: "Protest Convoy" of Giant Container Ships Sets Sail to "Obstruct" the Strait of Varia in Sea Protest
While workers protest the European Enterprise Penalties Act on land, a unique protest is emerging at sea involving container ships. The Duxburian Longshore Union (DLSU), which represents over 100 vessels, has called for a protest at sea. Faced with the prospect of losing vital business from large corporations in the event of a systemic economic collapse, the DLSU intends to "blockade" the narrow Strait of Varia along the northern Duxburian coast, bringing international commerce between the Atlantic and the Persian Gulf to a standstill. The DLSU has also put out an open invitation for merchant vessels of any nation to come join their protest.
The planned protest area would effectively close the Port of Mortec, a facility mostly used to supply the major Duxburian naval base in Mortec. The Duxburian Navy warned the DLSU against disrupting naval traffic, but organizers brushed aside the threat.
It is not clear how many ships the DLSU intends to pull out of the global shipping system for the protest, which would amount to a de facto strike, but dozens of container ships have already been spotted exiting Azuro, Norporte, Verinteno, Suez, and Laatzen for the Strait of Varia. Disruption to shipping in the strait could begin within 24 hours.
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Nemeiro Commission Election Pre-Debate Questionaire
Below are the results of the pre-debate questionaire taken by a random sample of the Duxburian probable voter population. Some questions/policy statements are the same as last election cycle and shifts in opinion are noted by (gain/loss).
I describe my overall political views as:
Strong Left: 2.0%
Moderate Left: 6.1%
Independent, Unaligned, or Centrist: 59.8%
Moderate Right: 22.6%
Strong Right: 9.5%All Left: (-8.1)
All Right: (+14.3%)
All Other: (-6.2)I also describe myself as:
Pro-European Integration: 5.3% (-2.8)
Anti-European Integration: 48.0% (+15.5)
Neither: 46.7% (-12.7)We should conduct international trade through a single currency issued by the European Central Bank
Yes: 6.0%
No: 94.0%We should use worker collectives at the European level to assist with green transition
Yes:14.1%
No: 85.9%The European Union represents me and my interests
Yes: 13.4% (-10.1)
No: 86.6% (+10.1)I am better off now than I was last Commission election
Yes: 52.7% (+12.8)
No: 47.3% (-12.8)The European Union needs major reforms
Yes: 55.0% (-15.0)
No: 45.0% (+15.0)The Union of Duxburian Dominions should leave the European Union
Yes - 76.1% (+17.2)
No - 23.9% (-17.2)If you answered yes to the above, should the Union of Duxburian Dominions join a new European Union?
Yes - 62.5% (-18.9)
No - 37.5% (+18.9)The European Union budget should:
Increase - 35.8% (+33.7)
Stay the Same - 29.4% (-38.6)
Decrease - 34.8% (+4.9)The European Union should devote more of the surplus to the European Development Agency
Yes: 62%
No: 38%The European Union should loan money to poorer member nations
Yes - 6.9% 8.7% (-1.8)
No - 93.1% (+1.8)Climate change is a problem that should be addressed at the European level
Yes: 63.9% (-15.6)
No: 36.1% (+15.6)Energy sustainability is a problem that should be addressed at the European level
Yes: 84.0%
No: 16.0%The European Council has too much power
Yes: 89.5% (+9.4)
No: 10.5% (-9.4)The European Council is fair
Yes: 39.8%
No: 60.2%The European Court of Justice needs reforms
Yes: 71.3%
No: 28.7%Projected Turnout by Dominion:
Realm of Varia - 5-10%
Empire of Laatzen - 5-10%
Dominion of Linden - 10-20%
Alliance of Verinteno - 10-20%
Technocracy of Hasilthec - 5-10%
Commonwealth of Kaumbrennia - 5-10%
Dominion of Suez - 5-10%
Solarity of Azrekko - 80-90%
Stormhold of Chirez - 5-10%
Alliance of Nikoveria - 50-75%Projected Overall Turnout: 18-26.5%
Analyst Notes: Recent events in the European Council have set the Duxburian electorate in motion, resulting in huge shifts in public sentiment. The nation appears to be taking a hard right turn, with a 14% surge in likely voters self-identifying as right and and a 15% collapse of the left across the past two EU election cycles. However, traditional left-right ideological camps continue to not be a good predictor of Duxburian voting habits, so caution must be used when drawing conclusions from such shifts.
One thing is certain - it's easy to conclude that many of these voters are angry, propelling support for leaving the EU to super-majority levels, with large increases in related positions, such as opposing further integration or the EU not representing the voter's interests. Even support for creating a new EU fell drastically. Improving economic conditions at home may be weakening the perceived need for the EU.
That said, over a third of voters now support increasing the EU budget, most likely influenced from the EDA's inability to fund massive projects like the Solaris Azrekko. Duxburians also overwhelmingly support pursuing energy sustainability, even though support for fighting climate change has declined. Interestingly, only 55% of voters now feel that the EU needs major reforms...perhaps they feel problems with the EU are more interpersonal than structural. There is still at least one big structural problem, with almost 90% responding that the Council has too much power.
Nemeiro projects another large drop in turnout almost nationwide. Many dominions might not even crack 10% turnout, which would approach record lows, but Azrekko remains stubbornly fired up to vote. This may be partly due to its special election being delayed, partly due to anger at the EU in a city where over 90% of its residents support leaving the union, or perhaps the Solarity realizes its vast power in low turnout EU elections on some meta collective level and wants to keep flexing that power. Whatever the reasons, as many as 9 out of every 10 eligible Sandmasters may head to the polls, again.
However, this time there is a new twist - Nemeiro projects high turnout in Nikoveria for the first time in any election. The nation's newest dominion may look tiny, with just 2 constituent cities and 0 rays of sunlight, but it's actually densely populous and has more voting power than Kaumbrennia or Varia. What do these voters want? It is difficult to know for certain with very limited polling having ever been conducted in the Alliance, but Nemeiro believes that Azrekko's high voter engagement is starting to spill over to its two sister cities. Perhaps Nikoverians vibe with Azrekkians and also see the same path to exercising enhanced voting power. Therefore, we think that both dominions will likely vote in lockstep, making it crucial to win both if a candidate wants the Duxburian vote.
It is too early to project support numbers for each candidate this time. Jean-Claude Juncker starts off with the advantage of name recognition and generally favorable past track record, although Duxburians remain wary of some of his proposed acts and policies, especially in must-win Azrekko. Juncker has struggled there in the past, particularly in last fall's Commission election. Calvin Kühnert faces the challenge of being totally unknown, but with the advantage of having favorable policy positions, especially in Azrekko.
Nemeiro is unable to assess Kevin Cotilla yet and expects additional, viable entries into the internal affairs race. Antoni Reynels enjoys high popularity, strong name recognition, and a positive foreign affairs track record. He is likely to cruise to victory regardless of whether Pekka Haavisto runs for re-election.
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JUNCKER, COTILLA EKE OUT NARROW VICTORIES AMID DIVIDED ELECTORATE, LOW TURNOUT
Darker colors on the map indicate higher winning margins
Premier Commissioner Map Color Votes Percentage % of All Eligible Voters Jean-Claude Juncker Blue 26,052,840 51.6% 17.5% Calvin Kühnert Orange 24,437,160 48.4% 16.5%
Darker colors on the map indicate higher winning margins
Internal Affairs Commissioner Map Color Votes Percentage % of All Eligible Voters Kevin Cotilla Green 8,187,102 50.12% 5.51% Ilmaras Kalessed Red 8,147,898 49.88% 5.49%
Darker colors on the map indicate higher turnout
Foreign Affairs Commissioner Map Color Votes Percentage % of All Eligible Voters Antoni Reynels Purple 91,793,790 99.7% 61.8% -
The Daily Dominion
All the News You Need to Hear
Federal Blockchain Alliance Unveils Next Generation LINK X Network
The Federal Blockchain Alliance led by Kade Nelson am Azrekko officially launched its brand new LINK X network at a press conference in the City of Verinteno today.
LINK X is a cutting edge, oracle network capable of securely onboarding and offboarding assets between different blockchains and payment networks.
"LINK X applies GHOSTDAG block parallelization principles to chains themselves, resulting in absolutely stupid scaling potential at-speed. This is now easily the highest throughput payment network on earth, capable of millions of transactions per second," explained Nelson. "Where you used to have to hook up to a bunch of different solutions for asset transfers, and of varying speeds, now you can hook up to the LINK X API and send anything anywhere in massive volume."
Verinteno will be the home of the FBA and its LINK X engineers going forward. "There are a lot of attractive places we could have homeported the network, especially out in Azrekko where they are making serious moves in blockchain. However, Verinteno is the heart and soul of the Duxburian financial system, so it makes the most sense to set up shop there," Nelson said. "Having LINK X will make Verinteno the most competitively forward-looking financial center in Europe. I am excited to keep innovating in this space!"
With the implementation of LINK X, the older Ripple X protocol is scheduled to be sunset by the Duxburian government and financial system by the end of the year. Current users of Ripple X will continue to be able to use the old protocol indefinitely, as it is decentralized and can't be shutdown.
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The Daily Dominion
All the News You Need to Hear
Councillor-General Wesley Greene's First European Act Passes Unanimously, Greene Sees Bump in Popularity
Councillor-General Greene's Harmonized Tariff Systems Code Act passed the European Council today by a unanimous vote of 7-0. The Act standardizes product codes for use in international trade. This popular Act was overwhelmingly supported by Customs inspectors, whose jobs may become easier and more seamless under the new system. Duxburian businesses also widely supported the Act, particularly in port cities.
The rare piece of legislation boosted Greene's approval rating from 54% to 59%. His approval ratings have mostly hovered in the 50s and 60s since appointment, but were on a gradual eroding trend recently. Greene has never dipped below 50%.
Now that Greene has succeeded in passing his first Act, some analysts believe he is primed to try another one sooner rather than later. "Success begets more success, especially when you've found wide, non-partisan support," said Petyr Alaan, a political analyst for Nemeiro. "I see this as a major leap of confidence for him on the European stage. He delayed introducing any bill for years due to youth and lack of confidence, but with that in the rear view window, he's likely to explore what's really possible."
Nemeiro polling also found that pro-European Union sentiment in Azrekko rose from 6% to 10% with the passage of the Act. While a whopping 90% of the city still opposes the EU, this is a significant trend reversal and the only positive increase there in many years.
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The Daily Dominion
All the News You Need to Hear
Next Generation Network Alliance Officially Releases DAGK Protocol to the Public
VERINTENO - The NGNA, a joint committee of the Duxburian Central Bank and Federal Blockchain Alliance, has now launched their highly advanced DAGK 1.0 consensus protocol. Programmed by world-renowned computer science experts Grandmaster Brandeus Devoy, Grandmaster Andres Marian, and Master Kade Nelson, DAGK utilizes much higher mathematical algorithms than previous partially-synchronus, directed acrylic graph of blocks protocols such as LINK X and Ripple X.
The permissionless, paramaterless protocol's transaction ordering logic is agnostic to its network latency, enabling it to scale to the size of the hardware that runs it, rendering its transactions-per-second cap theoretically infinite. DAGK's capabilities are limited only by the speed, size, and power of the internet itself. The protocol can finalize some closer transactions at speeds under 50 milliseconds vs the 2-5 second window of the older Ripple X network.
DAGK is published as an open source specification that anyone may use free for any purpose. The Duxburian government and financial sector plan on implementing a closed-source version of the protocol for payments processing by the end of the year, while some smaller credit alliances may be up and running with it far sooner.
The FBA will now deprecate the LINK X network, although as a decentralized specification, any entity running it may continue to run it indefinitely.
