Vayinaod's Voice - 2020 Election
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ELECTION NIGHT THEME MUSIC PLAYS
QRVAR : Welcome everyone to VTV1's election night special! I am Orvar Horn, VTV1's Primetime Political Analyst. I am hosting tonight's show with my wonderful co-host Embla Oelberg.
EMBALA: Good evening everyone! After a three week campaign stemming from Archkonsul Johansson's recall of EU Cllr. Carita Falk, the final votes are now being entered. It was a turbulent campaign, with the Moderates posed to come out as the largest party in the Storting but still short of the 231 seats to hold a majority.
QRVAR: That's right Em, the Moderates are hoping to make major gains in rural areas as well as the Elysven River Valley. The polling of the race has shown us that the collapse we expected of the Traditionalists in favor of the Christian Democrats back in 2017 might actually occur this year.
EMBALA: Now that its 2000 GMT+2:15, we can officially release the exit polling VTV1 managed to acquire over the course of the last few days.
QRVAR: Lorens Henningson of the Moderates will be really pleased with these exit polls, thats a 42 seat gain. It's also good in a way because it means he will only need one supporting party, namely either the Democrats or the Greens who are effectively tied in our exit polls.
EMBALA: The Social Democrats only losing twenty-one seats is a fairly good sign. They were originally tracking far lower. Now lets pair this with our exit polling for the Archkonsulship.
EMBALA: Truly still a dead heat as prediction by our polling over the last few weeks. The Archkonsulship results will likely be announced last tonight as it uses the Alternative Vote system, needless to say however it does look like it will be a show down between Lorens Henningson and either Kristian Nylund or Archkonsul Alvar Johansson.
QRVAR: Archkonsul Johansson barely won back in 2017, this election no doubt was always going to be a tough one. With it being a snap election as well, the Social Democrats likely were not at all prepared for this.
EMBALA: I think it is interesting Q, that Kristian Nylund's overall support did not translate into direct seats for the Greens. However the impact of certain last minute key endorsements from people like Eilidh Whiteford and Antoni Reynels is having a projected impact in places like Strondheim where the Greens are now polling to win the entire city overall in the vote. That's a major feat for the party.
QRVAR: I have to stop you there Em, we have the first results coming in from the District of Lund in a minute here, please stay tuned during these messages from FKEM.
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QRVAR: Alright the results from the District of Lund, just outside of Nyetthem have been released. Vardic law states cameras are not allowed in the announcement hall, but we have the results here for you right now.
QRVAR: With that, Arthur Behrend has usurped the District of Lund from incumbdent Social Democrat Ture Dirksen. This is arguably a major defeat for the social democrats, as Ture Dirksen was a major supporter of Archkonsul Johansson. There was a 11% swing over to the Greens this election.
EMBALA: Yes, there was that 11% swing, but I think it mainly came from the Moderates. Dirksen only lost about 4% of the vote compared to 2017, it seems as if Moderate voters went in droves to support the 2nd place party from 2017. I think this will be indicative of some minor gains for the Greens in seats there used to be relatively safe ones for the Social Democrats.
QRVAR: You don't think the Greens will make any major gains tonight?
EMBALA: No, I think that the Greens will remain stable as the exit polling suggests. However, I think that will be decided in the Green turnout in Strondheim and the Elysven River Valley those two areas are crucial to making any significant gain for the Greens.
QRVAR: On the topic of gains, I hope no Moderates out there will take this as some sort of defeat. Lund has always been a sort of tough area for them to get into. Once results from outside of the main metro area of Nyetthem come out we can more certainly figured out the validity of the exit polls.
EMBALA: It should be noted that Kristian Nylund had a 46% First Preference vote in Lund, with Lorens Henningson over in second place with 40% so there is definitely Moderate support in the area.
QRVAR: Here is the current electoral map while we await more results.
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EMBALA: By this point tonight fifty-one seats have been declared. The Moderates have so far had a really successful night, making inroads in Nyetthem, Northwest Vayinaod, and Strondheim. The Greens are posed to take the city of Strondheim as the dominant party, polling is indicating last minute campaigning by Antoni Reynels and Carita Falk might have been the power duo to push the Greens over the edge-----
QRVAR: I'm sorry to interrupt Em, but we are now getting results from Falun. The district is a swing district typically between the Liberals, Moderates, and Social Democrats. It has not been held by the same party for more than one election for the last twenty years. The current incumbent is Arvid Retting. Let's cut to the results now.
EMBALA: Rather disappointing result for the Mr. Rettig.
QRVAR: What did he expect, Falun is just as noncommittal as my father.
EMBALA: Very true. Falun is in central Nyetthem which so far has declared primarily for the Moderates who tend to do more successful in the area. Holst was very much a 'Hen' , the so-called nickname for party members who found a new found success following Lorens Henningson when he won the party leadership. He's pragmatic, meritocratic, unoffensive. But I did hear that he has a pretty good sense of humor.
QRVAR: It's interesting that the Liberals candidate, Schuhart, came in second. While the Liberals have held a strong presence locally in that district, the last time they won the seat or even placed second was 2002.
EMBALA: Let's take a look at the current state of the map.
QRVAR: We can see that Strondheim has so far been nearly split down the middle between the Moderates and the Greens, however the Social Democrats made major inroads just west of Strondheim. They managed to snag a Democrat as well as Christian Democrat seat. The results from Faroldhem shows that the Democrats and Moderates split their vote there, as well as in Erinsrat.
EMBALA: Should the Elsyven River valley, and the rest of Nyetthem hold for the Social Democrats, they might manage to only lose a few seats and put the Moderates in the position for a grand coalition only. That is a big if though however at this point.
What's more likely I think is the Greens excelling past the exit polls. The result in Strondheim was very very strong for them, if Havic and Nyettstrin go the same route to last part of the same extent, I wouldn't be surprise if the Greens manage to hit eighty seats tonight.
QRVAR: Do you think that comes from the Moderates or the Social Democrats?
EMBALA: To me, the Social Democrats and Progressives took a lot of heat in our polling, the Progressives are posed to lose half of their caucus, the traditionalists are gone, the Liberals and Centres took some heat as well. I think the the Social Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats to the Moderates, but I think in the end they will account for at best maybe half of Moderate gains tonight. Now let's take a lot at the results so far for Archkonsul.
Kristian Nylund has taken an early lead as 13% of the votes are currently in, them and Lorens Henningson is not that far behind. Archkonsul Johansson is probably really worried however, most of these votes so far are coming from Nyetthem and Strondheim he is not in a good position to make it far in the automatic transfer rounds. This could change as less turbulent cities for the Social Democrats come into play, but right now if I was in the Johansson campaign I would be looking into seeing where they lost it for the Archkonsulship.
QRVAR: Really interesting Em, please stay tuned we have more results coming in shortly.
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QRVAR: Welcome back everyone, we are now getting results from Ericsund with the District of Tumba. The district was a major target for the Moderates as the Democrat incumbent, Klara Axelsen, only had a 2% majority in the 2017 election. Let's cut to the results shall we.
EMBALA: Major disappointment for the Moderates, they put a lot of manpower into this specific race, without it its likely the Moderates will have another election with no seats in Ericsund.
QRVAR: Let's pull up the current seats so far elected.
EMBALA: Per the request of one of our awesome twitter followers @DramaLlama, we will be including these images as well as seat tables online!
QRVAR: Look at the Moderates making major gains in the Northwest. That was a minor breadbasket for the Social Democrats and I can see it definitely hurting right now in terms of seat numbers. Strondheim has been completely called, and the Greens won both the seats and popular vote there which is a major victory for them.
EMBALA: The major victory is the Greens holding out barrage after barrage. I think our exit polling underestimated how concentrated their vote was in the right place this election. I would be willing to put some money on the Greens getting close to 70 seats if the night keeps going as it is.
QRVAR: Let's not get too excited Em, the Elyrake districts have yet to start reporting and they are going to be key in any results for the Greens or the Social Democrats. I'm fairly confident the Social Democrats will get a pretty big chip into their Red Wall there from the Moderates, but definitely not the Greens.
Let's bring up the current results for the Archkonsulship, we are currently sitting on 30% of the total estimated votes.
EMBALA: The results from Nyetthem and Strondheim are definitely helping Nylund keep their lead.
QRVAR: Well the AV system allows for less tactical voting than we do in the districts, so there is a lot more variant results. These are not just coming in from declared districts only, but slowly being released from all over the country via the Archrepublic Electoral Center.
EMBALA: I've been informed by our analysts that we are projected that Kristian Nylund and Lorens Henningson will make it to the final round after votes have been transferred. Archkonsul Johansson has lost reelection based on our current projections, polling, and results already received.
QRVAR: That is completely major news, Archkonsul Johansson is the first Archkonsul to lose reelection in over 67 years. This is not boding well for the Social Democrats for the rest of the night.
EMBALA: Unfortunately, polling for 2nd Preference votes tends to be unreliable in terms of hard numbers. It's likely we will see the more rural social democrats end up supporting Henningson while the strongholds in Havic, Nyettstrin, Falkor will be key in providing a Nylund victory.
QRVAR: Well folks for the moment, we will have to cut to a commercial break, we will be back shortly.
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QRVAR: Welcome back everyone, we have results coming out of the District of Aarhus. So far, 282 seats have declared out of the 461 in the Storting.
We've started to see declarations coming out of the Elysven River Valley, as well as the more eastern portions of the country. Aarhus is home to Veronika Jenson, the Social Democrats caucus chairwoman in the Storting. It is expected that she will hold her seat, however, the rest of Nordsyen has started reporting and it has not been a good night for the Social Democrats in the area.
EMBALA: Let's cut to the results Q.
Jenson in the previous election received an outright majority, the Greens moved from third to second place which is probably where all that support went as the Moderates remained relatively stable.
QRVAR: Back in 2017, after the Democrats were rushed into some great initial success a lot of analysts predicted that they would end up as a 3rd Pillar in Vardic politics. Essentially being on par with the Social Democrats and Moderates, similar to the rise of the Citizen's Alliance in Angleter. But looking at the results here in Aarhus, it looks like more a protest vote moreso than political realignment for the Greens in the same vain as what we expected years ago for the Democrats.
EMBALA: Well Aarhus is hardly a political indicator for the rest of the nation. You're right though, here it was a protest vote. The Social Democrats broke a lot of political conventions in recent weeks when they tried to recall Cllr. Falk, among other things they did. Those political conventions being reliant on the social conventions of this nation. Social Democrats who remained loyal this go around are probably voting for their local representative thinking they aren't being reflected by the Archkonsul.
If we take a look here at the results so far, the Christian Democrats replaced the Traditionalists in Vejle and Odense, that's a thing polling got right. Traditionalists went out the window, Christian Democrats as a whole moved to the right. I would bet you a lot of their voters right now are former Traditionalist voters, and a lot of Christian Democrat voters went to the Democrats or the Moderates.
QRVAR: Look at some of those Democrat gains against the Moderates. I think that is reflective of the old theory that they would fill out some of the more populist areas and take them from the Moderates. Moderates are sitting at 108 seats right now, and likely to push into the territory of 190 which is beyond their expectations when this election began.
EMBALA: I agree, but I think the Moderates this election at least managed to hold themselves together. Every Moderate loss was filled up with a Moderate gain against the Social Democrats. I bet you that Moderate political strategists are looking at the Social Democrats and Greens as a possible case study for the next election.
The Greens are going to be a major key into that case study, they are only five seats behind their 2017 total of forty-nine seats. They show absolutely no signs of stopping, VTV1 is projecting them holding at about 65 seats right not pending some very close seats.
QRVAR: I think is spillover from Nylund's campaign. There's no other reason for this massive support, popular Green, unpopular Social Democrat for Archkonsul it's a perfect storm. The results will definitely stabilize next election.
EMBALA: Speaking of the Archkonsul race, let's take a quick look at currently reported numbers. Right now we have 58% reporting.
Henningson has pulled ahead, which has matched the pace of Moderate seats being declared. We are holding true to our projection that Johansson will not make it to the final round. VTV1 is still unable to make any predictions regarding the results of the final round. It seems like a coin flip.
QRVAR: Our background analysts behind the camera here, are coming up with the idea if the Greens make it above 70 seats Nylund will win, if the Greens make it below well obviously the opposite.
EMBALA: Regardless of who wins the Archkonsulship its likely the Greens and Moderates will form a government together. It just depends who gets the head of the table, and whose in the position of giving not asking for support. Things will be up for discussion from defense spending to the European Commission vote.
QRVAR: What do you think the impact will be on the European Commission vote.
EMBALA: It's hard to tell, I think that it will be a trade-off Trympov for Juncker or Whiteford for Winston. That said, the infighting between Winston and Juncker for Internal Affairs is unpopular among Vayinaodic voters at the moment.
QRVAR: There was an interview conducted by Winston earlier tonight where he talked about limiting military development among other things, that's not likely to help him. Especially getting Democrat and Moderate votes in the Storting to secure his vote from Vayinaod.
Tyrmpov is going to have a great night though, Henningson and Stoltensson will likely vouch enough to get the Storting to support his vote.
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QRVAR: The Archrepublic Electoral Center is now reporting 100% of the initial 1st Preference votes. The Center will take a few hours to compile the transfer votes between rounds before they announce the winner. It was a marvelous night for Kristian Nylund's Greens as well as Lorens Henningson's Moderates. Let's see the final results of the 1st Preferences.
EMBALA: Look at that! Henningson and Nylund are effectively tied right now, a few thousand votes is all that separates them right now. Nylund managed to siphon a lot of success from places that helped get Johansson get elected in 2017.
QRVAR: Even then, its a testament to their political prowress and clout, the Moderats and Social Democrats have been the only two parties to make it to the final round of transferred votes in nearly 35 years now. Whether Nylund wins or not tonight, they managed to get the Greens to gain seats, and gave the two biggest parties a major run for their money.
Before we get going further into this, we have results from the District of Arendal in Elsyven.
That seat saw a nearly 25% swing over to Casper Falk, who is one of Carita Falk's cousins.
EMBALA: I guess the policies aren't in the gene pool.
QRVAR: You're right there, but the in-fighting between the Social Democrats and Progressives in the district allowed him to carve out a majority of the vote. This split in the left has been seen through Vayinaod tonight. Let's take a look at the results so far.
Moderates are sitting at 160 seats right now, VTV1 is now projecting them to secure 187 seats by the end of tonight. Right now our analysts are projecting the Greens to take a mind-boggling 76 seats, they are currently at 61 seats. That would be a 32 seat gain from the 2017 election.
EMBALA: Look at the seats in Nyetthem , the moderates actually won the vote there and nearly the seat count. It seems like the split in the left destroyed the Progressives and Social Democrats while it bolstered the Greens to secure some really three way or four way races by tight margins.
QRVAR: Democrats at 42 seats right now continued their trend of taking some Moderate or Social Democrat seats only to lose to the Moderates in other key races. Our analysts based on current data are not projecting the Democrats, Progressives, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Centres to secure any further seats tonight. The Democrats do have a chance at proving that wrong in some swing sweats, but the other results so far do not seem to be helping their chances.
EMBALA: Interesting, let's see where the parties end up by the end of tonight.
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QRVAR: Alright everyone, the Electoral Center is ready to announce the winner of the Archkonsulship race. Currently all seats have declared, the Moderates won the night with 187 Seats and 36% of the Storting vote. They are well below the 231 requirement for a majority in the Storting and will likely need to partner with the Greens and their 76 Seats to make a majority. Let's take a look at the map and the seat projection before we head over to the Electoral center.
The screen switches to a press room with a man in a suit with a TV besides ready to present the results. First it he goes into the results of the 1st round of vote and slowly proceeds to remove the least successful candidate in each round before declaring where votes went afterwords. Finally after removing all the minority party candidates, all that was left was Nylund, Henningson, and Johansson.
Johansson was removed being far behind before Henningson and Nylund. Finally after declaring the number of ballots total who were removed due to a lack of preferences, spoiled, or other issues the final results were read around and displayed on the TV screen which then took up screens back home for millions of Vards. Over 19 million citizens voted, this was their voice. The Voice of Vayinaod.
EMBALA: Well there you have it folks, Kristian Nylund of Falkor has been elected Archkonsul of the Archrepublic of Vayinaod. They will take office this Wednesday, with a more formal inauguration ceremony to take place in May.
What this especially means is Kristian will need to form a coalition with the parties in the Storting to find a way to maintain a positive relationship with them.
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QRVAR: The expectation before the election was that the Greens were willing to work with the Moderates, and Kristian is very good friends with Lorens Henningson so its not out of the realm of possibility for the Earth Coalition to happen.It's not 0542 in the morning here in Nyetthem, me and my co-host are now off for the night, stay tuned for a post-election analyse, victory speech by Nylund among other news from the after math of this election.
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KRISTIAN NYLUND'S VICTORY SPEECH:
"Firstly, before I go any further, this election was not about me. It was about the child growing up not knowing who they are, being bullied for it. This election was about making sure that child grows up to have a voice and is not afraid to be who they are. I am no longer afraid to be who I am. This election was the result of the voices of millions of Vards.
To my partner Amir, thank you for dealing with me the last few months. You are my rock, my source of late night inspiration for speeches. I promise you we will go to the Sahara to see your family soon enough. To my father who always stood with me no matter what I said, who I said I was, and what I did I wish you were here with me now, thank you wherever you might be in the heavens. To the rest of my friends and family thank you for everything you've done to support me and the Greens in this election.
To my best friend, Carita, I'm sending you straight back to Europolis. Do your best work, win your election in a few months, I promise you I will fight to get your elected. You managed to help so many of us people with a vision elected tonight you deserve the same.
This one is going to shock her, but to Harriet Copala. Just a few weeks ago we were talking after the negotiations for the Nyetthem Accords. You looked at me and asked "Honey, why aren't you in charge." I was taken a back by that comment. I didn't think I could stand in front of you all here tonight as the leader of our nation. Thank you Harriet for believing in me, and inspiring me.
To all the voters in Vayinaod, both my supporters and those who voted against me. Thank you for making your voices heard. I will do my best to serve, and protect all your interests. To my opponents thank you for running a fair and honest campaign. To Archkonsul Johansson thank you for your service to our country, and being a mentor to me during my time in your administration.
Lorens Henningson and I spoke a few minutes ago, we agreed to form a government for all Vards in this nation, as well as a government to work with Europe. Some are calling it the Camo Coalition, others the Earth Coalition, I am simply calling it civil servants working for a better future. That's the final story of it.
With Lorens at my side as First Konsul, Carita Falk working in Europolis, and so many more in this administration we are going to change this nation for the better. We are going to diversify our economy, protect our workers, open new avenues for trade, encourage innovation through science and technology, foster the arts, defend our country and ensure everyone has the voice in this nation.
Let's all be a beautiful choir for Europe, but most importantly that child in a classroom thinking they are alone. Thank you everyone!"
