Nemeiro Commission Election Post-Debate Polling Results
Who do you plan to vote for in the Commission Election?
Premier Commissioner
JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER - 42.8%
SOFIE CIKAROVA - 42.7%
ISKIRIS KOLINE - 6.5%
Unsure - 8.0%
Internal Affairs Commissioner
PETER LEESON - 30.2%
JOE BIDEN - 27.0%
PIANE DAGGOTT - 29.9%
EMMA GRANGER 4.1%
JOSEPHINE AREAI 2.6%
Unsure - 6.2%
Premier race analysis:
The big stack of undecided voters has mostly made up its mind, resulting in a statistical tie between Juncker and Cikarova. Koline failed to generate much enthusiasm and has withdrawn from the race, however will remain on the already-printed ballots.
We have noticed Juncker's support slipping slightly and Cikarova making up ground. A whopping 83.5% of Duxburians oppose the Sanctioning Powers Act, which Juncker has re-affirmed his steadfast support for. An even larger supermajority oppose his position on stimulus and loans. However, his continual investment in engaging the Union of Duxburian Dominions and solid track record as a past Commissioner, particularly in regional crisis management, could outweigh unpopular stances. Juncker retains strong support with Duxburian upper and upper middle class voters and all age groups over 45.
Cikarova benefits from lower and middle class voter support, especially unionized voters in cities and voters under 30. This is currently the most energized demographic of the Duxburian electorate, although still projected to turnout in paltry numbers compared to past election cycles. Her lack of time investment in the country may have ended up leaving votes on the table.
Who are the remaining 8% undecided voters? We found that the lion's share of them are working or middle class, non-union, urban voters in the 31-45 age group. This demographic overwhelmingly desires meaningful change in the European Union, but is unsure which candidate is best suited to deliver that change. Juncker faces somewhat of a natural disadvantage with this pool of voters, but Cikarova has also not tapped into them at all, preferring to invest time in other countries. Where they land is critical for victory in the Union of Duxburian Dominions.
Internal race analysis:
Granger and Areai are not in serious contention, Leeson remains the frontrunner, but Daggott has soaked up the pool of undecided voters, making up ground and riding on Cikarova support to make current polling too close to call. Biden is still within range to contend, but has struggled to define himself and has no ground game in the Union of Duxburian Dominions. Like Cikarova, he may have left votes on the table.
Leeson's focus on fundamentals of sovereignty and democracy is widely supported across the Duxburian electorate, although some groups don't find his policies feasible. Daggott's strong ground game and equally credible change platform also finds wide support across the electorate. Daggott scores additional points with the 15-30 group for virtual campaigning to save fossil fuels.
Who are the 6.2% undecided voters? They are widely dispersed across demographic groups and are not a coherent bloc of people. Whichever candidate can bring the most momentum into the voting booth may eke out a narrow victory.